Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd49b…bdf9 politics 176 markets active 38d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3038 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$51,324 (+102%) realized +$51,487 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%13W / 169L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day3038.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 38% −$17,141
politics 23% −$10,457
other 14% −$7,115
culture 9% −$3,271
world 8% −$3,473
sports 4% −$1,238
weather 4% −$1,690
economics 0% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3038 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-75.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 182 -73.4% -75.9% 7% 4% -88.9%
all 182 -73.4% -75.9% 7% 4% -88.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3038.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.9% 4% -88.9%
10% ← realistic here -78.2% 3% -90.0%
15% -80.3% 3% -91.0%
20% -82.2% 3% -91.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -67% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$266 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$51,487
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses13 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)182 / 176
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day3038.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $8 $97 +$89 (+1119%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $165 $32 −$133 (-80%)
Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will OG Anunoby Jr. be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $116 $4 −$113 (-97%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tim Payne be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,281 −$1,115 -87%
Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pr May 22 $327 −$327 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $3,755 −$3,729 -99%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $540 −$79 -15%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $1,848 −$1,690 -91%
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Orla Nugent win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Niall Murphy win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Denman Rooke win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 22 $387 −$387 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 22 $466 −$304 -65%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 22 $44 +$176 +399%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Harman Bhangu win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Darrell Jones win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Warren Hamm win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $920 −$265 -29%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $1,166 −$1,166 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 22 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $770 −$701 -91%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,291 −$1,273 -99%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,307 −$1,147 -88%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,304 −$1,138 -87%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,299 −$1,128 -87%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,309 −$1,143 -87%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,309 −$1,143 -87%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,291 −$1,125 -87%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,304 −$1,138 -87%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,296 −$1,130 -87%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,286 −$1,120 -87%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,299 −$1,128 -87%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,292 −$1,121 -87%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $326 −$156 -48%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $1,006 −$977 -97%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 22 $306 −$306 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 13¢ $1 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 86¢ $474 38d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 43¢ $302 38d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 56¢ $291 38d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 56¢ $168 38d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 57¢ $12 38d
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 91¢ $7 38d
Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 91¢ $7 38d
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 65¢ $5 38d
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 91¢ $0 38d
Will Sheila Garrity win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Orla Nugent win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Niall Murphy win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Denman Rooke win the 2026 Galway West by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 38d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 84¢ $17 38d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president BUY No 99¢ $20 38d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY No 16¢ $3 38d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 95¢ $17 38d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY No 97¢ $18 38d
Will Harman Bhangu win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $18 38d
Will Darrell Jones win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $18 38d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY No 88¢ $16 38d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum BUY No 20¢ $4 38d
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le BUY No 98¢ $18 38d
Will Warren Hamm win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY No 100¢ $18 38d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 40¢ $99 38d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 59¢ $144 38d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 99¢ $171 38d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g BUY No 100¢ $172 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.94 · official $146.94 (match) · 3500 history records