Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd49d…6375 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-9%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$158
other 12% −$119
sports 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -27.6% -34.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 31 -27.6% -34.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
≤90d 31 -27.6% -34.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
all 31 -27.6% -34.5% 29% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 29% -12.4%
10% -40.8% 23% -20.8%
15% -46.5% 19% -28.4%
20% -51.7% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$33 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $203 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $222 −$215 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $307 +$145 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$4 -35%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 8h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 12h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records