Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd49e…3836 crypto 12 markets active 11h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$7
other 26% −$2
world 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 12 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $517 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $505 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $515 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $485 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $460 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $573 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records