Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D4 0xd4a0…2dcb sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$13 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+6.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+17.8%	+6.6%	100%	100%	+6.6%
≤30d	1	+17.8%	+6.6%	100%	100%	+6.6%
≤90d	1	+17.8%	+6.6%	100%	100%	+6.6%
all	1	+17.8%	+6.6%	100%	100%	+6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.6%	100%	+6.6%
10%	-3.6%	0%	-3.6%
15%	-12.9%	0%	-12.9%
20%	-21.4%	0%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$196

Realized+$13

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Brazil	49¢	48¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Over	47¢	46¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$67	+$12	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	49¢	$102	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$102	1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL DR Congo	71¢	$79	4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	59¢	$67	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.79 · official $195.79 (match) · 4 history records