Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4a4…3c66 sports 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 864d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,294 (+1%) realized +$2,306 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%303W / 177L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$2,129
14 days−$771
30 days−$1,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,530
other 33% +$3,281
politics 17% −$10
crypto 0% +$42
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 25% -15.6%
≤30d 48 -18.1% -25.9% 52% 42% -11.3%
≤90d 102 -1.5% -10.9% 64% 55% -10.3%
all 480 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 54% -8.7%
10% -20.1% 43% -17.4%
15% -27.8% 34% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 24% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$141 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

864d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized+$2,306
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses303 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)480 / 485
History coverage864d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $460 $456 −$4 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 57¢ $295 $288 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 25 $205 +$57 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $916 +$84 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $355 −$195 -55%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12,090 +$484 +4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $56 −$45 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12,515 +$646 +5%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $197 +$103 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $3,632 −$2,943 -81%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $510 −$510 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,766 +$5,234 +77%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $658 +$41 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,825 +$519 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $810 +$190 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,302 +$671 +52%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $275 +$125 +46%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $115 +$85 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $251 +$149 +60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,509 +$435 +29%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $390 −$390 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,314 −$918 -70%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $386 +$180 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,400 −$3,222 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 +$290 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,982 +$318 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $750 −$320 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,247 +$195 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,910 +$2,090 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,296 +$1,001 +44%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $627 −$627 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $4,634 −$4,394 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,013 −$888 -88%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $206 +$254 +124%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 14 $86 +$64 +74%
Aix en Provence: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alejandro Tabilo May 01 $157 +$43 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $257 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $39 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg SELL 33¢ $262 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 25¢ $205 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $137 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $602 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $177 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 24¢ $160 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 52¢ $355 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 32h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 37¢ $51 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,056 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $5,774 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,458 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.54 · official $743.54 (match) · 2246 history records