trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 25 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 44% | 44% | +5.0% |
| ≤30d | 25 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 44% | 44% | +5.0% |
| ≤90d | 26 | +11.4% | +0.8% | 42% | 42% | -7.2% |
| all | 133 | -11.2% | -19.6% | 47% | 45% | -19.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 45% | -19.5% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 44% | -27.2% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 36% | -34.2% |
| 20% | -40.8% | 30% | -40.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $28 | $27 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Colombia (-1.5) | Jun 18 | $20 | +$25 | +123% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $20 | +$17 | +82% |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $20 | +$46 | +226% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $38 | +$28 | +73% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $28 | −$28 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $38 | +$18 | +48% |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $10 | +$15 | +152% |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $31 | +$46 | +152% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 15 | $20 | +$24 | +119% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Spread: Sweden (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $10 | +$30 | +291% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $25 | +$23 | +89% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$68 | +442% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $68 | −$67 | -98% |
| Warriors vs. Mavericks | Jan 23 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. 76ers | Jan 23 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Jan 23 | $30 | +$36 | +121% |
| Raptors vs. Kings | Jan 22 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Grizzlies | Jan 22 | $134 | −$134 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Nuggets | Jan 21 | $86 | +$115 | +133% |
| Timberwolves vs. Jazz | Jan 21 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Suns vs. 76ers | Jan 21 | $48 | +$36 | +75% |
| Clippers vs. Bulls | Jan 21 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Rockets | Jan 20 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 20 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Heat vs. Warriors | Jan 20 | $106 | +$71 | +67% |
| Pacers vs. 76ers | Jan 19 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | Jan 19 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Jan 19 | $48 | +$59 | +122% |
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers | Jan 19 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Lakers | Jan 19 | $108 | +$107 | +100% |
| Hornets vs. Nuggets | Jan 19 | $104 | −$104 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets | Jan 19 | $76 | −$22 | -29% |
| Suns vs. Knicks | Jan 18 | $48 | +$52 | +108% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Jan 17 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 17 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Raptors | Jan 17 | $48 | +$56 | +117% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | Jan 17 | $48 | +$59 | +122% |