Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

D4 0xd4a4…ea4f other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+38.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+52.5%	+38.0%	67%	50%	+2.4%
≤30d	6	+52.5%	+38.0%	67%	50%	+2.4%
≤90d	6	+52.5%	+38.0%	67%	50%	+2.4%
all	6	+52.5%	+38.0%	67%	50%	+2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.0%	50%	+2.4%
10%	+24.8%	50%	-7.4%
15%	+12.7%	17%	-16.3%
20%	+1.7%	17%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.49 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	Over	90¢	100¢	$23	$26	+$3 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$17	+$6	+34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$26	+$2	+6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$21	+442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$12	−$12	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$12	+$4	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	90¢	$23	1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$23	1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$17	2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	89¢	$10	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$26	38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$12	45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	74¢	$12	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 11 history records