Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4a9…75f9 weather 863 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$723 (-2%) realized −$730 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%456W / 405L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$348
14 days−$304
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$802
world 0% −$32
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.1% -15.9% 69% 9% -16.5%
≤30d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 9% -11.4%
≤90d 570 -0.8% -10.3% 67% 34% -12.0%
all 861 -5.9% -14.8% 53% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 29% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 12% -20.4%
15% -30.4% 7% -28.1%
20% -37.2% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$730
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses456 / 405
Open positions2
Markets (closed)861 / 863
History coverage109d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 93¢ 95¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $160 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $162 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $164 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $157 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $163 −$77 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $34 −$17 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $166 −$35 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $165 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $162 +$19 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $162 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $141 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $144 −$91 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $144 −$70 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $153 −$45 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 −$62 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $154 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $151 −$34 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $154 +$17 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $155 −$29 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $152 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $119 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $156 −$50 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $129 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $156 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $154 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $153 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $152 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $149 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 06 $116 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $153 −$41 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $153 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $160 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $74 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $168 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $155 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $157 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 46¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 51¢ $62 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 64¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $73 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 44¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 47¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 48¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $118 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $115 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $39 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $162 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $180 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $19 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $19 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $92 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 93¢ $115 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.92 · official $92.67 (match) · 3020 history records