Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd4aa…f861 other 77 markets active 11h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$166 (+12%) realized +$173 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$63
world 24% +$96
sports 17% +$41
politics 10% −$92
tech 6% +$26
crypto 3% −$22
finance 3% +$25
economics 2% +$12
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.6% +24.5% 60% 50% +16.1%
≤30d 31 +24.9% +13.0% 58% 39% +6.4%
≤90d 58 +16.8% +5.7% 55% 38% +2.9%
all 58 +16.8% +5.7% 55% 38% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 38% +2.9%
10% -4.4% 38% -6.9%
15% -13.6% 33% -15.9%
20% -22.1% 28% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions19
Markets (closed)58 / 77
History coverage77d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 18¢ 26¢ $32 $44 +$12 (+38%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $38 +$22 (+135%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $19 +$3 (+21%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $6 −$13 (-69%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 +$14 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr Jun 16 $21 −$18 -86%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 +$33 +147%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$10 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 +$6 +34%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 +$11 +51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$13 -64%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 +$27 +123%
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 −$27 -47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 +$15 +53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +86%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$27 -66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $62 +$63 +103%
Celonis IPO before 2027? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Anduril IPO before 2027? May 30 $5 $0 -4%
ByteDance IPO before 2027? May 30 $4 $0 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 30 $52 −$21 -41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $10 $0 +2%
Revolut IPO before 2027? May 21 $4 $0 +4%
Stripe IPO before 2027? May 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 May 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 14 $55 −$35 -64%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 02 $19 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $30 +$14 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 27 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 27? Apr 27 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of April? Apr 27 $35 +$3 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $18 +$39 +219%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 25 $13 +$1 +6%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Apr 23 $3 $0 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $26 +$6 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $57 +$77 +136%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 33h
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr SELL Yes $1 44h
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr SELL Yes $1 44h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 2d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $32 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 3d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 3d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 3d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 4d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL BASEMENT BOYS $7 4d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 20¢ $21 4d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 4d
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.23 · official $160.23 (match) · 215 history records