Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd4ab…8253 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate92%34W / 3L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$1,469
14 days−$1,465
30 days−$673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$55
other 2% +$14
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.5% -37.1% 50% 50% -68.9%
≤30d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 70% -17.5%
≤90d 37 +11.2% +0.6% 92% 57% -9.1%
all 37 +11.2% +0.6% 92% 57% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 57% -9.1%
10% -9.0% 24% -17.8%
15% -17.8% 14% -25.7%
20% -25.9% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$562 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses34 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage74d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 33¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $136 +$52 +38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $416 +$165 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1,486 −$1,486 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,250 +$176 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,250 +$254 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $1,660 +$161 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $952 +$143 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $206 +$57 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $645 +$44 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $831 +$7 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $769 +$69 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 16 $85 +$12 +14%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 16 $87 +$13 +15%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 16 $500 +$71 +14%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 May 03 $534 +$53 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $224 +$42 +19%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 29 $110 +$17 +15%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $110 +$32 +29%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 24 $222 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $256 +$185 +72%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $218 +$60 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $118 +$81 +69%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $116 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $128 +$3 +2%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Apr 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $70 +$8 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $78 +$15 +19%
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 14 $26 +$10 +37%
Will Trump dance during UFC 327? Apr 14 $18 +$5 +25%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 13 $10 +$2 +17%
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 11 $17 +$1 +8%
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Apr 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $189 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $136 11h
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $200 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $336 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $245 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $244 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $171 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No $200 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $60 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 48¢ $20 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $24 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 74¢ $1,382 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 89¢ $1,426 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 78¢ $1,250 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,504 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $250 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $1,000 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL No 94¢ $959 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 93¢ $292 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 84¢ $263 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $263 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $206 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 84¢ $860 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL No 83¢ $862 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 77¢ $800 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 85¢ $803 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 73¢ $489 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.60 · official $307.08 · 96 history records