Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4ac…f49b sports 1789 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%887W / 487L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day91.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$137
14 days+$231
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$381
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 +30.9% +18.5% 67% 67% +17.4%
≤30d 1374 +27.0% +14.9% 65% 64% +14.9%
≤90d 1374 +27.0% +14.9% 65% 64% +14.9%
all 1374 +27.0% +14.9% 65% 64% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.9% 64% +14.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 62% +3.9%
15% -6.2% 53% -6.1%
20% -15.4% 40% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses887 / 487
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1374 / 1789
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day91.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B LPH Gaming 21¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+376%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner LPH Gaming 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+245%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 30¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+233%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 31¢ 81¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
ITF Ystad: Camilla Zanolini vs Sarah Van Emst Camilla Zanolini 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Spirit Academy 45¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
ITF Saarlouis: Tom Zeuch vs Markus Malaszszak Markus Malaszszak 58¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 61¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Laslo Djere 45¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev Kirill Kivattsev 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
ITF Monastir: Maddalena Giordano vs Dominika Podhajecka Dominika Podhajecka 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
ITF Dinard: Leilany Ipunesso vs Elise Renard Elise Renard 79¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 42¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner 100 Thieves 52¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Majchrzak vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 64¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert Stefan Seifert 73¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Raffaele Ciurnelli 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini Marta Lombardini 72¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 83¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 57¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Sofia Kenin 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
ITF Haskovo: Lidia Encheva vs Irina Fetecau Lidia Encheva 76¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Federica Bilardo Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
ITF Milano: Federico Arnaboldi vs Gilberto Ravasio Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Gill vs. Gaston: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
ITF Gyula: Jan Hrazdil vs Tudor Batin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Savva Rybkin vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 16 $1 +$4 +388%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Constanta: Gabriel Ghetu vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alen Mujakic vs Vlado Jankanj Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $1 +$1 +130%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $1 +$5 +442%
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Dias vs Choinski Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
ITF Milano: Florent Bax vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Lys Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Luciano vs Alesia Breaz Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Wang Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 42¢ $1 4m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 52¢ $1 5m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 83¢ $1 6m
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Raffaele Ciurnelli 29¢ $1 8m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 64¢ $1 12m
ITF Saarlouis: Tom Zeuch vs Markus Malaszszak BUY Markus Malaszszak 60¢ $1 18m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 18¢ $1 20m
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini BUY Marta Lombardini 72¢ $1 21m
ITF Saarlouis: Tom Zeuch vs Markus Malaszszak BUY Markus Malaszszak 56¢ $1 23m
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr BUY Alina Granwehr 71¢ $1 24m
ITF Dinard: Leilany Ipunesso vs Elise Renard BUY Elise Renard 79¢ $1 59m
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 45¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 45¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 49¢ $1 1h
ITF Haskovo: Lidia Encheva vs Irina Fetecau BUY Lidia Encheva 76¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 24¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 61¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 65¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $1 1h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Leonardo Borrelli 9¢ $1 1h
ITF Ystad: Camilla Zanolini vs Sarah Van Emst BUY Camilla Zanolini 39¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 35¢ $1 1h
ITF Monastir: Maddalena Giordano vs Dominika Podhajecka BUY Dominika Podhajecka 86¢ $1 1h
ITF Klosters: Adrien Burdet vs Andrej Martin BUY Adrien Burdet 24¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Federica Bilardo BUY Gabriela Ce 68¢ $1 1h
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev BUY Kirill Kivattsev 77¢ $1 2h
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert BUY Stefan Seifert 73¢ $1 2h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba BUY Bernardo Munk Mesa 31¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.26 · official $40.26 (match) · 2699 history records