Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ac…5e19 sports 1076 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,207 (-1%) realized −$1,172 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%532W / 650L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$1,165est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$3,274
crypto 4% −$408
other 4% +$894
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -86.8% -88.0% 6% 6% -85.8%
≤30d 133 -78.1% -80.2% 11% 11% -79.4%
≤90d 594 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 42% -17.6%
all 1182 -14.5% -22.7% 45% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 43% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 39% -24.1%
15% -36.8% 35% -31.5%
20% -43.0% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$84 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$1,172
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses532 / 650
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,165
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1182 / 1076
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 69¢ 55¢ $49 $39 −$10 (-21%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Paranaense vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Sebastian Korda vs Casper Ruud Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Otto Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$13 -54%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 18 $216 −$216 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Rio Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Vit Kopriva Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Jun 18 $335 −$335 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik Jun 18 $41 −$43 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Jun 18 $249 −$250 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $831 −$831 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 18 $566 −$566 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Jun 18 $13 −$48 -365%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UCLA Bruins Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. New Haven Chargers Jun 18 $4 −$8 -212%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $49 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $8 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 99¢ $408 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $209 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $281 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $281 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $198 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $262 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $62 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 60¢ $99 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $531 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $107 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $206 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $188 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $100 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $466 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 78¢ $499 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.84 · official $71.84 (match) · 3500 history records