Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ad…2161 sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-5%) realized −$112 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%61W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$123
14 days−$130
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$161
crypto 35% +$7
other 15% −$57
world 1% −$9
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -30.1% -36.8% 21% 19% -21.1%
≤30d 84 -15.7% -23.7% 26% 25% -14.2%
≤90d 177 -17.2% -25.0% 31% 31% -20.6%
all 185 -13.4% -21.6% 33% 32% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 32% -18.4%
10% -29.1% 30% -26.2%
15% -36.0% 30% -33.3%
20% -42.3% 29% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses61 / 124
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage232d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 −$44 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$40 +165%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$35 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$41 +307%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$107 +550%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$70 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 +$38 +197%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 +$64 +340%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 +$26 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $12 +$34 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 3¢ $5 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $10 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $13 14h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $18 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $27 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $19 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $19 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $8 26h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $5 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 356 history records