Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd4b1…27ad other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%28W / 27L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$3
other 31% $0
politics 16% $0
crypto 9% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 0% -8.9%
all 55 -0.0% -9.5% 51% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses28 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $12 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 28 $1 $0 -23%
Israel military action against Iran before June? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea May 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 09 $14 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $37 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $39 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $11 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $28 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $39 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $12 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $23 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.60 · official $36.38 (match) · 171 history records