Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4b6…41b4 sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,669 (-19%) realized −$4,670 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%62W / 47L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$1,335
14 days−$2,284
30 days−$3,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$3,309
other 16% −$1,400
crypto 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.9% -37.4% 43% 43% -88.6%
≤30d 47 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 53% -30.7%
≤90d 95 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 55% -28.4%
all 109 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 54% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 54% -27.9%
10% -26.7% 46% -34.8%
15% -33.7% 33% -41.1%
20% -40.2% 20% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$217 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$4,670
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses62 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 115
History coverage130d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $47 +$37 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $639 −$639 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $609 −$609 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $39 +$23 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $535 −$535 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $512 −$506 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 13 $353 −$353 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $75 +$53 +70%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $429 +$178 +41%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $358 +$71 +20%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $289 +$70 +24%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $411 +$42 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $165 +$82 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 08 $396 −$396 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 07 $854 −$854 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $83 −$3 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $363 −$363 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $260 +$103 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $210 +$51 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $117 +$93 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $122 −$4 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $76 +$46 +60%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $57 +$19 +33%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $372 +$188 +51%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $805 −$94 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $57 +$13 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $691 +$366 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $442 −$437 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $133 +$309 +232%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$32 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $39 +$64 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $103 −$102 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $649 +$119 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $804 +$182 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $495 +$308 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $445 −$441 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $340 +$104 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $398 +$438 +110%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5 May 26 $513 −$513 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $24 +$10 +43%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 May 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $490 +$216 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bass May 22 $366 −$366 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $84 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $84 33m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 55¢ $47 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 100¢ $47 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 68¢ $32 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $1 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $609 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $63 5d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $63 5d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 62¢ $39 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $1 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $535 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $639 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $512 9d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $99 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $99 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 20¢ $29 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $128 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $75 11d
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 68¢ $353 11d
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Varvara Panshina 50¢ $46 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $46 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $50 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Korea Republic vs. Czec BUY 34¢ $51 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $606 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $429 12d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $429 12d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $358 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.56 · official $83.56 (match) · 237 history records