Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4b7…3267 sports 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,021 (+36%) realized +$6,004 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%263W / 126L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,894
7 days+$5,502
14 days+$5,812
30 days+$5,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$5,341
other 6% +$526
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +15.9% +4.9% 71% 71% +39.2%
≤30d 389 +10.5% -0.0% 68% 67% +22.5%
≤90d 389 +10.5% -0.0% 68% 67% +22.5%
all 389 +10.5% -0.0% 68% 67% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 67% +22.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 53% +10.8%
15% -18.3% 42% +0.1%
20% -26.3% 31% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$6,004
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses263 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions25
Markets (closed)389 / 414
History coverage29d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 57¢ $88 $98 +$10 (+12%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 71¢ 76¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 57¢ 56¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 59¢ 72¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+21%)
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 80¢ 90¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 78¢ 78¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 58¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 87¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) New Zealand 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
GV CD San José vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
GV CD San José leading at halftime? Yes 86¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 +$2 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 +$3 +14%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $68 +$37 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 +$12 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$89 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $124 +$27 +22%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $178 +$678 +381%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $18 +$10 +53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,199 −$1,184 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $728 +$678 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 +$14 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,774 +$4,421 +249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$3 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $995 −$985 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $439 +$363 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 −$179 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $120 −$118 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 +$6 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$3 +19%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$3 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$24 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $201 −$196 -98%
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: FK Haugesund (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$28 +216%
Spread: Stroemsgodset IF (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$10 +80%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $528 −$520 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $83 11m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 26m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $6 27m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 33m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $6 46m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $6 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $6 1h
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $6 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $6 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $6 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $6 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $6 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $6 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $6 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $6 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $6 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 57¢ $6 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 78¢ $6 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $17 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $61 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $6 6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $6 6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.58 · official $319.60 (match) · 1084 history records