Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4b8…004a sports 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%24W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
other 25% −$3
politics 19% −$3
crypto 7% $0
culture 7% $0
economics 6% −$4
tech 4% $0
world 4% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 196 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses24 / 172
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage169d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $180 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $88 +$2 +2%
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $124 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $133 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $179 −$1 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $142 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 23 $47 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 13 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 2h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 7d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 7d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $46 15d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $47 15d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 23d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 36d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $47 84d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $48 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 98¢ $45 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $45 85d
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 92¢ $39 85d
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $39 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 95¢ $45 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 92¢ $43 85d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $38 85d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $38 85d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $39 85d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $39 86d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $48 86d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $48 86d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $47 86d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $37 86d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 86d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $38 86d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $8 87d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.67 · official $46.67 (match) · 677 history records