Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4b8…7bf1 crypto 519 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$418 (-2%) realized −$443 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%374W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$566
14 days−$509
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$292
other 11% −$185
world 9% −$21
politics 6% +$74
sports 3% −$43
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -32.8% -39.2% 54% 20% -16.6%
≤30d 200 -11.7% -20.1% 72% 26% -12.9%
≤90d 485 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 32% -11.9%
all 485 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 32% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 32% -11.9%
10% -21.8% 15% -20.3%
15% -29.4% 9% -28.0%
20% -36.3% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,776
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses374 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)485 / 519
History coverage72d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 82¢ 94¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $97 $110 +$13 (+13%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 76¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 85¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$2 (-3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? No 78¢ 81¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 83¢ 78¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? No 88¢ 59¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $444 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $50 −$38 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $371 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $280 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $93 −$9 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 +$9 +3%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $207 +$4 +2%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $90 +$17 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $444 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $401 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $270 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $51 19h
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $72 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $280 21h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 81¢ $136 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 24h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 24h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 29h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,775.80 · official $1,775.81 (match) · 1617 history records