Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4bb…a993 sports 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,564 (+8%) realized +$16,933 · open +$2,631
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%191W / 74L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$849per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$322est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$14,935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$427
7 days+$978
14 days+$234
30 days+$7,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$15,420
sports 21% −$447
world 20% −$1,478
politics 13% +$3,188
culture 11% +$1,853
crypto 0% −$291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.2% -16.0% 69% 51% -5.6%
≤30d 108 +1.5% -8.2% 72% 52% -2.6%
≤90d 207 +0.1% -9.5% 70% 48% -6.4%
all 265 +5.0% -5.0% 72% 49% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 49% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -12.3%
15% -22.4% 21% -20.8%
20% -30.0% 12% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$214 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$14,935
Realized+$16,933
Unrealized+$2,631
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses191 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$322
Open positions8
Markets (closed)265 / 273
History coverage151d
Avg bet$849
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $212 −$193 -91%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $74 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 +$6 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $165 −$164 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $480 +$27 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $446 +$54 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $567 +$133 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $62 +$38 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $368 +$42 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $525 +$249 +47%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $579 +$110 +19%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $268 +$32 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,612 +$88 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $145 −$75 -51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $836 +$264 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $471 +$229 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1,055 −$645 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $454 +$46 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $537 +$463 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $493 −$462 -94%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $139 +$48 +35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,991 +$374 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,646 +$651 +25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $864 −$755 -87%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $5,962 +$947 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $434 −$433 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $107 +$93 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $279 +$121 +44%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $189 −$22 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,836 −$1,828 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $256 −$255 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $1,001 +$763 +76%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $71 +$8 +12%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $86 +$8 +9%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $354 +$77 +22%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $354 +$199 +56%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $250 +$65 +26%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $285 +$15 +5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $313 +$113 +36%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $1,946 +$70 +4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Jun 05 $279 +$21 +8%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $4,396 −$352 -8%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $177 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY No 96¢ $133 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $45 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $149 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Colombia 74¢ $74 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $151 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $14 5h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $110 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $506 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $358 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $121 13h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 95¢ $8 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $567 33h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $66 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $446 35h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $25 35h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 94¢ $80 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $62 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,935.12 · official $14,935.12 (match) · 1633 history records