Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd4bc…b19d sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,550 (+7%) realized +$1,542 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 38L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$561
7 days+$2,451
14 days+$1,264
30 days+$1,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,353
other 25% +$421
crypto 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.2% -3.9% 61% 61% +12.4%
≤30d 78 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 51% -2.5%
≤90d 78 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 51% -2.5%
all 78 -2.5% -11.7% 51% 51% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 51% -2.5%
10% -20.2% 49% -11.8%
15% -27.9% 44% -20.4%
20% -35.0% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$203 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$1,542
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage15d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ 87¢ $445 $577 +$132 (+30%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 63¢ 46¢ $447 $323 −$124 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $755 +$147 +19%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $516 +$239 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $154 +$45 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $200 +$65 +33%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $578 −$571 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $423 +$228 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$45 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 +$103 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $249 +$154 +62%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $343 +$303 +88%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $200 +$202 +101%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $118 +$26 +22%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $211 +$229 +109%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $148 +$126 +86%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $199 −$195 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $400 +$158 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $936 +$1,064 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $182 +$115 +63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $308 −$303 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $563 −$556 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $572 +$797 +139%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $286 −$282 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $342 −$335 -98%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $215 −$209 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $217 +$198 +91%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $255 +$460 +181%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $570 +$783 +137%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $253 +$153 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $147 −$144 -98%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $299 −$296 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $375 −$367 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $385 +$190 +49%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $203 −$53 -26%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $98 −$52 -52%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $118 +$70 +60%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $133 −$111 -84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $197 +$103 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $329 +$101 +31%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $430 +$289 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $422 +$284 +67%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $403 −$400 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ $197 1h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 68¢ $252 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $40 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $406 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $902 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 83¢ $499 4h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 83¢ $256 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 68¢ $10 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 68¢ $506 14h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 78¢ $8 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 64¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 59¢ $101 25h
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff SELL Hanfmann/Struff 99¢ $265 25h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alicia Dudeney 59¢ $101 25h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken BUY Aleksandar Vukic 62¢ $101 25h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 77¢ $146 25h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 62¢ $101 25h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 62¢ $101 26h
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Hanfmann/Struff 74¢ $200 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $150 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $151 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $151 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $100 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $99 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $273 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $900.13 · official $900.13 (match) · 191 history records