Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4c0…1002 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,209 (+11%) realized +$3,023 · open −$814
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%62W / 72L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,522
7 days−$723
14 days+$135
30 days+$1,891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,285
other 19% −$24
world 1% +$212
crypto 1% −$123
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -12.0% -20.4% 28% 27% -18.3%
≤30d 133 +2.3% -7.4% 46% 44% +0.3%
≤90d 134 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 45% +1.4%
all 134 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 45% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 45% +1.4%
10% -14.9% 40% -8.3%
15% -23.2% 34% -17.1%
20% -30.7% 28% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$69 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$3,023
Unrealized−$814
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses62 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 142
History coverage83d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 60¢ 12¢ $1,000 $208 −$792 (-79%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 38¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $203 −$36 -18%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $51 +$22 +42%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 +$104 +510%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $232 +$31 +13%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$122 +596%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$208 +102%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$80 +157%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +21%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$90 +88%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$368 +717%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $1,012 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $281 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 33¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 47¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $504 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $163 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $102 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $201 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 10¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.48 · official $406.48 · 320 history records