Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ca…78b1 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$5
other 27% +$9
politics 19% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
all 28 +3.2% -6.7% 46% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -8.7%
10% -15.6% 7% -17.4%
15% -23.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -31.2% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage324d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $66 −$4 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $7 +$2 +25%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 26 $5 +$2 +32%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $37 +$6 +16%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 30 $41 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $12 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $57 6d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $7 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.32 · official $47.32 (match) · 83 history records