Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4cb…bb7a sports 162 markets active 1d ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,528 (-5%) realized −$1,499 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%94W / 56L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$904
7 days−$656
14 days−$639
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,029
other 16% −$828
politics 9% +$42
tech 6% +$239
world 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +45.8% +31.9% 78% 61% -21.3%
≤30d 51 +23.2% +11.4% 78% 47% -12.9%
≤90d 60 +13.1% +2.4% 73% 45% -14.3%
all 150 +6.2% -3.9% 63% 42% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 42% -14.3%
10% -13.1% 33% -22.5%
15% -21.5% 29% -30.0%
20% -29.2% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$80 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$1,479
Realized−$1,499
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses94 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage186d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $366 $367 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $276 $268 −$8 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $85 $69 −$16 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $54 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $33 −$9 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $607 +$57 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,306 +$20 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$20 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $811 +$31 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $404 +$109 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $600 +$2 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $705 +$139 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 28 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $104 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $26 +$20 +76%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $156 −$127 -81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $59 +$41 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $251 −$98 -39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $23 +$17 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $316 +$39 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 +$22 +108%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $1,000 +$12 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 18 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No $4 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $5 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $700 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $5 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $401 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $100 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $801 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.06 · official $1,479.06 (match) · 382 history records