Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4ce…6d45 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$305 (+44%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +131% what you keep after slip
Net edge+131%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$444
other 35% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+150.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +176.4% +150.1% 33% 33% +80.2%
≤30d 12 +176.4% +150.1% 33% 33% +80.2%
≤90d 12 +176.4% +150.1% 33% 33% +80.2%
all 12 +176.4% +150.1% 33% 33% +80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +150.1% 33% +80.2%
10% +126.2% 33% +62.9%
15% +104.3% 33% +47.2%
20% +84.3% 33% +32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +176% · $-wt +108% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +287% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$45 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$24 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$145 +549%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$598 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $244 +$301 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $1.25 (match) · 25 history records