Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ce…41ac sports 633 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$232 (-3%) realized −$235 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%403W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$231
14 days−$389
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$251
other 5% −$26
world 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$9
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -12.7% -21.0% 61% 61% -20.6%
≤30d 632 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 63% -13.1%
≤90d 632 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 63% -13.1%
all 632 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 63% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 63% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 53% -21.5%
15% -27.0% 41% -29.0%
20% -34.1% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses403 / 229
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)632 / 633
History coverage21d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 57¢ 82¢ $7 $11 +$3 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $7 +$5 +66%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $7 +$4 +59%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $6 +$3 +55%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $7 +$2 +30%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $7 +$2 +35%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $7 +$4 +51%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $7 +$4 +52%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $7 +$5 +71%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +74%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $7 +$5 +74%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $7 +$4 +54%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $7 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $12 21h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 97¢ $11 21h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $7 22h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 66¢ $7 23h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 65¢ $7 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $10 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 71¢ $7 24h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 98¢ $10 34h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 57¢ $6 35h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 86¢ $7 35h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $11 35h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 71¢ $7 37h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann SELL Valentina Steiner 99¢ $9 37h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $7 37h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann BUY Valentina Steiner 63¢ $6 37h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 97¢ $9 37h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 74¢ $7 39h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva SELL Anja Stankovic 99¢ $8 39h
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Krawietz/Puetz 69¢ $7 39h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 86¢ $7 40h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $7 40h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 73¢ $7 40h
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta BUY Thanapet Chanta 72¢ $7 44h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 97¢ $9 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 71¢ $7 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 98¢ $10 2d
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele SELL Jurij Rodionov 97¢ $10 2d
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 60¢ $7 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 69¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.66 · official $10.88 (match) · 1186 history records