Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd4cf…2770 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$223 (+27%) realized +$246 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$209
14 days+$209
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$50
other 32% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +56.9% +42.0% 75% 75% +24.6%
≤30d 16 +45.4% +31.6% 62% 62% +23.5%
≤90d 16 +45.4% +31.6% 62% 62% +23.5%
all 16 +45.4% +31.6% 62% 62% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 62% +23.5%
10% +19.0% 62% +11.7%
15% +7.5% 62% +0.9%
20% -3.1% 62% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$45 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage38d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$41 +81%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$32 +158%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$23 +225%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 +$22 +106%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $99 +$64 +64%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 +$176 +344%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $92 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 5d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $33 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $42 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 18d
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $227 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 18d
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 22¢ $51 18d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $130 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.11 · official $87.11 (match) · 45 history records