Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4d0…e640 crypto 676 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$502 (-14%) realized −$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%306W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$66
world 15% −$458
other 1% +$6
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +74.4% +57.8% 100% 100% +57.8%
≤30d 4 -56.4% -60.6% 25% 25% -13.5%
≤90d 437 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 54% -12.0%
all 676 -11.3% -19.7% 45% 45% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 45% -22.7%
10% -27.4% 43% -30.1%
15% -34.4% 42% -36.8%
20% -40.8% 41% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses306 / 370
Open positions0
Markets (closed)676 / 676
History coverage155d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 676 Trades
no open positions (211 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $32 +$24 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 42¢ $55 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1505 history records