Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4d1…086e sports 1142 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$11,058 (-6%) realized −$12,544 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%535W / 606L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days−$6,467
14 days−$7,091
30 days−$7,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$4,682
crypto 13% −$2,426
other 12% −$3,726
world 11% −$1,564
finance 2% −$109
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$45
economics 0% −$23
tech 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 36% -45.3%
≤30d 156 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 42% -32.2%
≤90d 296 +8.1% -2.2% 46% 43% -20.7%
all 1141 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -15.5%
10% -19.9% 42% -23.6%
15% -27.7% 40% -31.0%
20% -34.7% 34% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$95 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$12,544
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses535 / 606
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1141 / 1142
History coverage189d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 22¢ 17¢ $256 $195 −$61 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Kraken vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Celtics 52¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Washington Huskies vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 156.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? No 53¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Marin Cilic 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $287 $0 −$287 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$36 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$48 +47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$53 -53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $832 +$177 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $728 +$53 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$32 +311%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$15 -24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +234%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $593 +$13 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $37 +$7 +19%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $216 +$99 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 +$23 +91%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $549 +$34 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $51 +$42 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $504 +$340 +67%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1,168 −$162 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $138 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $425 +$67 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $660 +$91 +14%
Utah vs. Stars Jun 12 $2,206 −$585 -26%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) Jun 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1,030 −$609 -59%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $387 −$387 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-15? Jun 12 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,890 −$3,767 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $165 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $207 −$68 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $207 −$151 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $200 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $30 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $218 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $100 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $48 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,009 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 82¢ $832 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $781 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 43¢ $42 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 93¢ $728 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $2 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $79 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $34 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $605 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $593 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $44 7h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $31 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.28 · official $195.28 (match) · 3168 history records