Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4d3…c5af other 482 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,314 (-2%) realized −$8,293 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%219W / 281L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$911per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$280
14 days−$294
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$7,576
sports 16% +$4,117
other 14% −$3,629
world 13% −$100
economics 6% −$113
tech 4% −$841
finance 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$11
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 39 -75.8% -78.1% 8% 8% -29.8%
≤90d 105 -27.5% -34.4% 39% 29% -12.0%
all 500 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 35% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 35% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 27% -19.8%
15% -29.8% 22% -27.5%
20% -36.7% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$110 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$8,293
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses219 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions8
Markets (closed)500 / 482
History coverage219d ⚠
Avg bet$911
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $51 $65 +$13 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+79%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $39 $8 −$31 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Wolves end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$31 -104%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-01? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 19 $10 −$14 -143%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K July 14–20? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on No Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on Nov Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Nov Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$4 -135%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on No Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-09? Jun 19 $3 −$7 -220%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $60 +$35 +60%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $80 −$28 -36%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 31 $399 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 30 $200 −$11 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $77 −$46 -60%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? May 26 $395 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 25 $200 −$56 -28%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 25 $40 −$18 -44%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $14 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Harry Maguire be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq May 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $180 +$20 +11%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $118 +$82 +69%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $68 +$81 +120%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $184 +$16 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $23 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 29¢ $66 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $21 12d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 62¢ $60 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $128 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $10 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $1 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $2 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $1 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 44¢ $50 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $90 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.22 · official $263.22 (match) · 3500 history records