Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D4 0xd4d4…5c5e other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+19%) realized +$164 · open +$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$157
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$317
crypto 7% −$29
sports 6% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% +9.8%
≤30d 47 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 38% +9.2%
≤90d 47 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 38% +9.2%
all 47 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 38% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 38% +9.2%
10% -29.3% 36% -1.3%
15% -36.1% 32% -10.8%
20% -42.4% 28% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$16 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage9d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $100 $154 +$54 (+54%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $50 $104 +$54 (+108%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 +$27 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$26 +40%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $61 +$85 +140%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$34 +328%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -84%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $36 +$87 +242%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $56 +$19 +35%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$70 +106%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $46 +$99 +216%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 13h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 31h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 32h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 33h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 34h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 3d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.72 · official $306.72 (match) · 98 history records