Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4d8…c3f8 sports 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,242 (-5%) realized −$1,188 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%124W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$504
7 days+$725
14 days+$768
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,735
crypto 0% $0
other 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.3% -4.8% 38% 38% +43.1%
≤30d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 35% +41.8%
≤90d 108 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 44% -0.6%
all 314 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 36% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 36% -16.3%
10% -27.7% 32% -24.4%
15% -34.7% 26% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$51 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses124 / 190
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage154d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 40¢ 34¢ $335 $280 −$54 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $187 +$213 +114%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $138 −$137 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $100 +$440 +442%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $228 +$180 +79%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $27 −$3 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $182 +$118 +65%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $167 +$132 +79%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -97%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 07 $61 +$89 +145%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Contin Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alycia Parks vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 16 $117 −$1 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $4 $0 -2%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 03 $179 +$33 +18%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Apr 03 $20 −$3 -14%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Adrian Mannarino Apr 03 $164 −$102 -62%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 02 $17 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Clo Apr 02 $44 −$10 -23%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $124 +$52 +42%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Apr 01 $11 +$7 +67%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $104 −$102 -98%
Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball Mar 31 $14 +$16 +118%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Clos Mar 31 $30 +$59 +199%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Play Mar 31 $50 −$48 -98%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Mar 31 $10 +$16 +163%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 30 $27 +$73 +270%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Mar 30 $66 −$65 -99%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Ningbo Rockets Mar 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playof Mar 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $11 +$16 +150%
Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Mar 29 $49 +$51 +104%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $16 +$24 +144%
Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5 Mar 29 $141 +$47 +33%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Imperial (BO3) - FERJEE In House Playoffs Mar 29 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs JiJieHao (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group C Mar 29 $150 +$69 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $31 +$54 +178%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $102 +$159 +156%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $84 +$58 +69%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $29 +$109 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $15 36m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $400 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $187 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $163 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $163 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $69 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $1 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $8 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $14 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $44 29h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 29¢ $12 29h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $539 43h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 18¢ $100 43h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $407 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 57¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 55¢ $200 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 65¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 71¢ $27 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 27¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 31¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 26¢ $12 4d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 60¢ $182 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Atputies 30¢ $46 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo BUY Noir Verse 48¢ $7 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $167 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $30 5d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 14¢ $36 9d
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $150 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.50 · official $280.50 (match) · 876 history records