Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4d9…2851 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,428 (-61%) realized −$4,422 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,459per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,804
7 days−$1,804
14 days−$1,804
30 days−$1,804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$3,245
economics 17% −$1,210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -41.9% -47.4% 0% 0% -47.4%
≤30d 1 -41.9% -47.4% 0% 0% -47.4%
≤90d 4 -75.4% -77.8% 0% 0% -65.8%
all 4 -75.4% -77.8% 0% 0% -65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.8% 0% -65.8%
10% -79.9% 0% -69.1%
15% -81.8% 0% -72.0%
20% -83.6% 0% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,112 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$4,422
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1,459
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $81 $75 −$6 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $4,306 −$1,804 -42%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 20 $1,269 −$1,210 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $508 −$304 -60%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 21 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $81 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $82 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $286 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $537 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,151 34d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $1,269 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2,421 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $562 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $335 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,435 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $204 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $508 52d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $566 63d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $565 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.21 · official $75.21 (match) · 14 history records