Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4d9…bdd5 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,454 (-1%) realized −$1,454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 94L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,092per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$237
politics 36% −$57
sports 10% −$1,164
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.1% 10% 0% -10.6%
all 121 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 10% -10.5%
10% -20.2% 10% -19.1%
15% -27.9% 7% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,092
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $3,923 −$6 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,560 +$2 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $2,494 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $628 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,913 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,971 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $5,141 −$7 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $429 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $626 +$1 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,348 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,734 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,349 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $4,550 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,555 −$4 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,797 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $560 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $561 4h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 7h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 8h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $890 23h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $891 26h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $627 27h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $628 30h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $311 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $254 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $826 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,624 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,626 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,628 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,630 16d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,601 16d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,361 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,363 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,297 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records