Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4e9…f6ca crypto 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-6%) realized −$74 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%100W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$26
other 28% −$97
sports 5% −$24
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% -11.2%
≤30d 254 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -17.6%
≤90d 254 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -17.6%
all 254 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 39% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -25.5%
15% -34.2% 34% -32.7%
20% -40.6% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses100 / 154
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)254 / 261
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+238%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$7 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $20.41 (match) · 494 history records