Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd4eb…929a crypto 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,050 (-0%) realized −$1,067 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%203W / 15L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,388per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,331
other 7% +$282
politics 2% −$38
sports 0% +$44
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 2 +12.9% +2.2% 100% 50% +2.2%
≤90d 63 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 2% -9.3%
all 218 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 1% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 55% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$6,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$412 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$1,067
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses203 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage158d
Avg bet$3,388
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 100¢ $128 $145 +$17 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 +$26 +26%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 5, 9PM ET? May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 06 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 30 $101 +$1 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $11,289 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $11,269 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $2,520 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $5,689 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $171 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $285 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $11,124 +$126 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $11,141 −$38 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12? Apr 13 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 10? Apr 11 $11,094 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 on April 9? Apr 10 $11,058 +$31 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $10,840 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $209 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $11,044 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $11,033 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $10,989 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $11,000 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $11,191 +$21 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on April 4? Apr 05 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $11,180 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3? Apr 04 $10,242 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $1,721 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $6,942 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $11,151 +$11 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $11,039 +$112 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $4,168 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $10,965 +$70 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $128 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $102 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $102 42d
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 5, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 50d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $101 56d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $102 56d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $101 63d
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $201 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,538 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $158 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,221 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.38 · official $145.38 (match) · 932 history records