Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4ee…e425 sports 1841 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,041 (-7%) realized −$2,940 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%716W / 988L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$575est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$885
other 10% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +38.3% +25.2% 58% 58% +32.7%
≤30d 411 +29.0% +16.7% 47% 47% +7.6%
≤90d 1222 +3.8% -6.1% 41% 41% -10.3%
all 1704 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 42% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -19.4%
15% -24.5% 41% -27.2%
20% -31.9% 39% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2,940
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses716 / 988
Est. fees paid−$575
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1704 / 1841
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Francesca Jones 25¢ 24¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 22¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 45¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $47 +$65 +138%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$29 +90%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $19 +$27 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$3 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $24 +$28 +114%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$27 +92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$54 +262%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$23 +452%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$20 +84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$33 +107%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $46 +$39 +86%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 +$9 +37%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$27 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$17 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$43 +170%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$4 -7%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 14 $43 +$36 +83%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $63 +$102 +162%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $70 −$2 -3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $31 +$38 +123%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$12 -59%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $21 +$21 +99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$27 +89%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 12 $29 +$26 +90%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $30 +$24 +80%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $80 −$60 -75%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $136 −$45 -33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $30 +$34 +112%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $40 +$38 +95%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -97%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $13 −$6 -46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$18 +117%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 +$33 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 25¢ $41 54m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $5 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 21¢ $10 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $39 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $14 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 98¢ $59 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 90¢ $54 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $10 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $37 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 45¢ $32 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $32 16h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 SELL Over 98¢ $52 16h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 41¢ $19 16h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $37 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 SELL Over 98¢ $52 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 SELL Over 98¢ $0 16h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $40 17h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 38¢ $23 17h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 84¢ $0 17h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) SELL Kansas City Royals 84¢ $46 17h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $57 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 18h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 45¢ $24 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $74 18h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 85¢ $28 18h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 19h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $3 19h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $23 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.55 · official $37.55 (match) · 3418 history records