Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4f0…7e79 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1
other 28% $0
politics 19% $0
tech 5% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 37 -1.0% -10.5% 41% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage269d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $38 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $36 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 28 $16 $0 -3%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 -7%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $39 30m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $32 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $22 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $16 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $31 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $6 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $28 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $36 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $36 27d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records