Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D4 0xd4f2…e6b1 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%37W / 70L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$12
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$35
sports 38% +$68
world 13% −$17
crypto 3% −$13
politics 2% −$4
economics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -30.9% -37.5% 23% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 86 -27.2% -34.1% 27% 26% -5.1%
≤90d 86 -27.2% -34.1% 27% 26% -5.1%
all 107 -5.4% -14.4% 35% 34% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 34% -1.1%
10% -22.6% 30% -10.6%
15% -30.1% 28% -19.2%
20% -36.9% 22% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)107 / 131
History coverage208d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $114 −$8 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran Jun 16 $8 +$18 +218%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 +$6 +50%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $4 +$18 +495%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? A Jun 15 $3 +$18 +571%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Bucks Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Hawks vs. Pistons Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 234.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Bulls Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $123 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $6 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $3 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY $3 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $5 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 18¢ $3 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 19¢ $3 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 24¢ $3 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 17¢ $3 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 12¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 32h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $10 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.50 · official $254.57 · 383 history records