Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4f4…bb68 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$39 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$30
other 19% +$6
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.2% +9.6% 93% 76% +7.5%
≤30d 29 +21.2% +9.6% 93% 76% +7.5%
≤90d 29 +21.2% +9.6% 93% 76% +7.5%
all 29 +21.2% +9.6% 93% 76% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 76% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 48% -2.8%
15% -10.4% 14% -12.2%
20% -19.2% 7% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.69 per $1 lost it wins $4.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 90¢ 50¢ $49 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Up 82¢ 50¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 76¢ 50¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 87¢ 50¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$22 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$2 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$14 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$7 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 9m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $24 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.50 · official $48.50 (match) · 63 history records