Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4f6…e2c8 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 51% -9.1%
≤30d 84 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 51% -9.1%
≤90d 84 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 51% -9.1%
all 84 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 51% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 51% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 48% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 33% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 19% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records