Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4f7…73bb other 106 markets active 3h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,982 (+11%) realized +$6,196 · open −$214
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate77%61W / 18L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5,860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$200
14 days+$279
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$5,087
world 19% +$749
politics 17% −$458
crypto 12% +$125
finance 5% +$74
economics 4% −$84
sports 2% −$229
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.3% +36.9% 100% 80% +23.2%
≤30d 12 +32.7% +20.0% 92% 75% -13.1%
≤90d 44 +5.9% -4.1% 80% 34% -11.5%
all 79 +2.3% -7.4% 77% 33% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 33% +2.0%
10% -16.3% 25% -7.7%
15% -24.4% 15% -16.6%
20% -31.8% 9% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$271 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$5,860
Realized+$6,196
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses61 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions27
Markets (closed)79 / 106
History coverage241d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $700 $715 +$15 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $500 $585 +$85 (+17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $580 −$20 (-3%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $600 $562 −$38 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $500 $415 −$85 (-17%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 24¢ 78¢ $121 $390 +$269 (+221%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $313 $332 +$19 (+6%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 76¢ 84¢ $229 $250 +$22 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $242 $249 +$7 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $186 $199 +$13 (+7%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $183 $198 +$15 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $180 $189 +$8 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $168 $181 +$13 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $88 $141 +$53 (+61%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 11¢ $221 $113 −$108 (-49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $88 $105 +$17 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+23%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 41¢ 56¢ $62 $85 +$23 (+38%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $77 $84 +$8 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $96 $76 −$20 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $84 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $87 $54 −$33 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $88 $53 −$36 (-41%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 23 $105 +$15 +14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $48 +$80 +167%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $116 +$8 +7%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $143 +$36 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $262 +$38 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $2,521 +$42 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,130 −$880 -78%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $80 +$84 +105%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$6 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $105 +$24 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $618 +$278 +45%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 05 $392 +$215 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States May 04 $182 +$26 +14%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 30 $900 +$5 +1%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 29 $662 +$1 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Apr 29 $139 +$16 +12%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be betwe Apr 29 $89 −$72 -81%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $1,059 −$6 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 27 $166 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 24 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 24 $267 −$14 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 23 $520 +$46 +9%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $180 +$4 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 23 $338 +$12 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 23 $82 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $186 +$2 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $89 −$44 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 22 $699 +$9 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 22 $168 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $1,128 +$18 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 22 $398 +$15 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $475 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $475 +$6 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $112 +$12 +11%
Will Trump say "Blockade" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April Apr 21 $29 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $1,194 −$112 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 21 $134 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 19 $54 +$14 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $220 +$90 +41%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $860 +$33 +4%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 20 $245 −$245 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 20 $66 −$16 -24%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $367 −$239 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $722 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $624 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $330 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 59¢ $148 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $135 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $97 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $94 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $118 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $71 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $69 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 24h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $89 28h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $124 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $178 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 5d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 8d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,859.69 · official $5,859.93 (match) · 1000 history records