Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4f9…f4ad
sports · 352 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$8,520 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,407 · open −$113
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$887
Realized−$8,407
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses186 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,599
Open positions1
Markets (closed)351 / 352
Avg bet$554
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$584
14 days−$8,504
30 days−$10,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 71¢ 63¢ $1,000 $887 −$113 (-11%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 50¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 40¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 73¢ 0¢ $1,961 $0 −$1,961 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 59¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? No 76¢ 0¢ $501 $0 −$501 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Sinners 64¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Shopify Rebellion 36¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 34¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 63¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 38¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 31¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 48¢ 0¢ $336 $0 −$336 (-100%)
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Ultra Prime 13¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Vitality 50¢ 0¢ $1,997 $0 −$1,997 (-100%)
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Movistar KOI 69¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 50¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5,459 $0 −$5,459 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 KT Rolster 59¢ 0¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Astralis 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Aurora Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,568 +$819 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,000 +$568 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,001 −$979 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,005 −$992 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5,557 −$5,459 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $1,977 −$1,961 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 29 $512 −$500 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $454 −$445 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $304 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1,010 +$528 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 May 25 $1,006 +$244 +24%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 25 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $306 +$505 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $508 +$565 +111%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,737 +$2,145 +124%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $770 +$262 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $1,027 +$446 +43%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $3,621 −$3,573 -99%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 May 22 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 18 $1,011 +$505 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $3,090 +$1,833 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $2,305 +$786 +34%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $1,559 +$743 +48%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $1,010 +$551 +55%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 15 $2,026 −$1,997 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2,153 −$2,129 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $1,005 +$1,148 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1,833 −$1,814 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1,297 +$537 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 15 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 15 $405 +$185 +46%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 15 $504 +$181 +36%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 15 $507 +$402 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $606 −$601 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 14 $305 +$324 +106%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 14 $304 +$145 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 14 $304 +$241 +79%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 14 $304 +$296 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1,017 +$535 +53%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $304 +$139 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$7,400
other 11% −$1,297
crypto 0% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $1,009 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 68¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $1,565 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,568 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $998 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 20¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 26¢ $996 21h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $1,003 25h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $5,537 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $1,977 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 21¢ $512 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 31¢ $454 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $1,018 16d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,020 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $304 16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 65¢ $1,010 17d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 86¢ $1,004 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 78¢ $1,007 17d
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1,007 18d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 18d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner BUY Legacy 37¢ $306 19d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 47¢ $508 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 44¢ $5 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 44¢ $1,732 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $1,033 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 74¢ $770 20d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,474 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 50% -21.2%
≤30d 55 -2.6% -11.9% 58% 58% -27.0%
≤90d 332 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 50% -14.3%
all 351 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 52% -13.5%
10% -22.2% 52% -21.7%
15% -29.7% 47% -29.3%
20% -36.6% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.41 · official $887.41 (match) · 691 history records