Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd4f9…b0d3 crypto 83 markets active 24h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$191 (-8%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate79%64W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$190
other 7% −$5
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.6% -8.0% 70% 70% +1.4%
≤30d 13 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 54% -7.5%
≤90d 13 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 54% -7.5%
all 81 -10.2% -18.8% 79% 16% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 16% -16.6%
10% -26.6% 12% -24.6%
15% -33.7% 7% -31.8%
20% -40.2% 5% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses64 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage237d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$13 +84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $101 −$97 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $125 −$124 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $114 +$11 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $191 +$24 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $89 $0 +0%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? Jan 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 2? Jan 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 23? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 22? Dec 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 21? Dec 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 19? Dec 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Dec 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 17? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 30? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $44 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? SELL No 28¢ $2 8d
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $4 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $125 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? SELL No 94¢ $125 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? BUY No 86¢ $114 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.45 · official $10.45 (match) · 165 history records