Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4fa…dcc8 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3452 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30,037 (+387%) realized +$29,984 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day3452.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3452 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 10% -7.5%
≤30d 48 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 10% -7.5%
≤90d 48 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 10% -7.5%
all 48 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 10% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3452.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 10% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 4% -16.3%
15% -24.1% 2% -24.4%
20% -31.6% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
70.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$29,984
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day3452.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 83¢ 70¢ $103 $88 −$15 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 7¢ 30¢ $16 $69 +$53 (+336%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $141 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $165 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $270 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $228 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $266 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $91 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $113 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $171 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $160 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $149 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $193 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $161 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $273 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $299 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $168 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $164 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $189 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $289 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $235 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $156 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $143 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $174 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $229 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $155 +$120 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.06 · official $158.14 (match) · 3500 history records