Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd501…f699 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 25% −$1
finance 12% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -4.1% -13.2% 35% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage464d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $12 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $13 +$1 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $16 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $31.00 (match) · 68 history records