Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D5 0xd501…1814 world 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+6%) realized +$72 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%206W / 159L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$41
sports 14% +$6
other 14% +$14
politics 12% +$12
finance 3% −$3
economics 3% −$4
crypto 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 36% -10.7%
≤30d 118 +19.2% +7.8% 50% 41% -0.2%
≤90d 294 +5.9% -4.2% 54% 34% -4.6%
all 365 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 33% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 18% -13.8%
15% -22.0% 12% -22.1%
20% -29.6% 10% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses206 / 159
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions83
Markets (closed)365 / 448
History coverage107d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 18¢ 64¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+253%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 27¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+165%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 49¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 58¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+44%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+31%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 72¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 70¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 56¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -20%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 13 $1 +$7 +545%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 24m
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 29m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 30m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 44m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 47m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 48m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 49m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 50m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 50m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 50m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 50m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 52m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 52m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 53m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $0 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.99 · official $106.06 · 3500 history records