Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D5 0xd503…7fd4 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23 (+5%) realized +$25 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$9

7 days+$9

14 days+$9

30 days+$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+0.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+2.6%	-7.1%	33%	33%	-5.8%
≤30d	11	+13.0%	+2.3%	73%	45%	-5.0%
≤90d	13	+11.7%	+1.1%	77%	38%	-5.0%
all	14	+11.5%	+0.9%	79%	36%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.9%	36%	-4.9%
10%	-8.8%	14%	-14.0%
15%	-17.6%	7%	-22.3%
20%	-25.7%	7%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

55% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage

Net worth$208

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage142d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	86¢	85¢	$108	$107	−$1 (-1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	93¢	92¢	$52	$52	−$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	95¢	94¢	$49	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Jun 21	$58	−$1	-1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$85	+$13	+16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$62	−$4	-7%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 12	$1	+$1	+67%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Jun 06	$16	+$3	+17%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Jun 06	$43	+$1	+3%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 06	$10	$0	+3%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	May 29	$1	$0	-3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	May 29	$1	$0	+8%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	May 29	$2	$0	+16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	May 29	$1	$0	+25%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	May 08	$2	$0	+4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	May 08	$2	$0	+4%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Feb 26	$4	$0	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	BUY No	95¢	$49	1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY No	93¢	$52	1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	86¢	$82	1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	85¢	$27	1h
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	94¢	$57	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$98	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$51	1h
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	BUY LGD Gaming	59¢	$1	14d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	95¢	$58	14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$85	14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$55	14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$6	14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	81¢	$19	14d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$44	14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL No	100¢	$10	14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$7	23d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	67¢	$16	23d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	82¢	$43	23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY No	97¢	$10	23d
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL No	84¢	$1	23d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	SELL No	90¢	$1	23d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	SELL Yes	86¢	$2	23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	SELL No	100¢	$2	23d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	73¢	$1	44d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	73¢	$1	44d
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY No	85¢	$1	44d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	BUY No	84¢	$1	44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY No	79¢	$1	44d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY No	96¢	$2	114d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	BUY No	96¢	$2	114d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.52 · official $207.52 (match) · 56 history records