Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd504…b6e2 world 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%26W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$27
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$14
other 19% +$2
sports 15% −$3
politics 10% −$6
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 29 -2.9% -12.1% 45% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 55 -3.8% -13.0% 36% 7% -9.3%
all 92 -2.9% -12.1% 28% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -9.4%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses26 / 66
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage294d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $109 +$6 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $130 +$21 +16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $272 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $201 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $243 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $213 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $111 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $59 +$7 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $17 −$7 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $107 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $227 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $12 −$2 -13%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $63 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $107 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $117 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $107 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $162 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $42 12m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 12m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $49 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $55 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $15 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $52 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 43h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $81 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $81 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $53 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 471 history records