Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd507…f353 crypto 1548 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate82%1268W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$7
14 days−$19
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 +1.2% -8.4% 96% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 884 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 1548 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 4% -9.9%
all 1548 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 4% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1268 / 280
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1548 / 1548
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1548 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$20 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $55 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $43 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $63 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $59 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records