Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd508…d9e3 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$62 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$28
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
other 28% +$11
sports 18% −$6
crypto 6% +$8
weather 5% −$51
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.1% -48.5% 20% 20% -81.6%
≤30d 10 -39.1% -44.9% 30% 30% -35.5%
≤90d 10 -39.1% -44.9% 30% 30% -35.5%
all 48 -15.0% -23.1% 19% 10% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 10% -11.9%
10% -30.5% 10% -20.3%
15% -37.2% 8% -28.0%
20% -43.3% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage453d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 24? No 55¢ 76¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +185%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $19 +$15 +78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 +$13 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Feb 21 $5 +$6 +133%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons Feb 17 $26 +$9 +33%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $266 $0 -0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Dec 26 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 02 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 10? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 08 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 06 $10 $0 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 03 $15 −$3 -17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Sep 29 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market ca Sep 25 $16 $0 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on September 19? Sep 18 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 06 $27 $0 -0%
NBA Playoffs: Pacers vs. Bucks (To Advance) Apr 20 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $5 $0 -8%
Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $3 $0 -0%
US recession in 2025? Apr 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $5 $0 -5%
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance) Apr 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Apr 12 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 24? BUY No 55¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 52¢ $13 40h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $19 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 67¢ $28 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 116d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 31¢ $2 117d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 28¢ $7 119d
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY Colorado State Rams 43¢ $5 125d
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen BUY Massachusetts Minutemen 39¢ $10 126d
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons BUY Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 75¢ $26 128d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 179d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $256 179d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 179d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $265 179d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $257 179d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $257 180d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $263 180d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $263 180d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $266 180d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $266 180d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $255 180d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $255 180d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $11 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.44 · official $41.44 (match) · 100 history records